The Real Question Isn’t “Will AI Take Jobs?”
- Carl Fransen
- 5 hours ago
- 3 min read
Five The Main Futures Once AI Can Do “Most Work”
Future A: Augmented Humanity (High-Productivity Capitalism)
Description
AI replaces tasks, not people—at least initially.
Humans shift toward oversight, strategy, relationship-building, creativity, and governance.
Work increases in hours
What this looks like
40+ hour work weeks, perhaps longer to remain competitive.
Productivity gains accrue unevenly at first.
“Human-in-the-loop” becomes law in many domains.
Support
McKinsey finds that most jobs are partially automatable, not fully replaceable, with transitions stretching over decades. [mckinsey.com]
Brookings notes most highly exposed workers still have adaptive capacity, especially in developed economies. [brookings.edu]
Risk
Inequality spikes before policy catches up.
Future B: Post‑Work Society (Universal Basic Income / New Social Contract)
Description
Work is no longer required for survival.
Income is decoupled from labor.
Humans work optionally: art, care, research, entrepreneurship, status games.
What this looks like
Universal or guaranteed basic income funded by:
AI productivity taxes
Sovereign AI ownership
Education becomes lifelong and intrinsic, not vocational.
Support
Universal Basic Income has moved from theory to mainstream policy debate due explicitly to AI disruption. [govfacts.org], [blogs.lse.ac.uk]
WEF and McKinsey both expect large-scale task displacement by 2030 even in moderate scenarios. [weforum.org], [mckinsey.de]
Risk
Political resistance.
Identity crisis for societies built on work-as-worth.
Future C: Neo‑Feudalism (AI Oligarchy)
Description
AI is controlled by a small number of corporations or states.
Wealth concentrates extremely.
Most humans become economically irrelevant.
What this looks like
Private AI systems outperform governments.
Surveillance and control expand “for stability.”
Access to AI = class boundary.
Support
Multiple governance papers warn that unchecked AI concentrates power faster than previous industrial revolutions. [uwaterloo.ca], [intelligence.org]
Risk
Social unrest, authoritarianism, democratic collapse.
Future D: Regulated Abundance (Human-Centered AI Governance)
Description
Strong global governance limits dangerous AI deployment.
AI dividends are explicitly redistributed.
Human dignity is a design constraint.
What this looks like
International AI treaties.
“Off-switch” and compute limits for frontier models.
Mandatory benefit-sharing mechanisms.
Support
UN’s Governing AI for Humanity explicitly calls for this path. [digitallib...ary.un.org], [stimson.org]
ITU and global governance bodies are already coordinating on frameworks. [itu.int]
Risk
Coordination failure between nations.
Race dynamics undermine regulation.
Future E: Loss of Control / Existential Risk
Description
AI surpasses human strategic capacity.
Humans lose meaningful control over systems shaping reality.
What this looks like
Economic irrelevance becomes political irrelevance.
Human goals no longer anchor decision-making.
Support
Explicitly discussed by MIRI and alignment researchers as a non-trivial risk if governance fails. [intelligence.org]
Risk
Obviously existential.
2. A Probable Timeline (Weighted, Not Certain)
Important: No credible source claims exact dates. This timeline blends published ranges with synthesis.
2025–2028: Task Collapse Phase
White-collar task automation accelerates rapidly.
Legal research, accounting, HR, customer support, marketing, coding all heavily disrupted.
Microsoft and others publicly state most white-collar work becomes automatable in
this window. [decrypt.co]
Probability: ~80%
2028–2035: Job Redefinition Crisis
Job titles lag behind reality.
Massive reskilling failures.
Governments forced into emergency income support.
Evidence
WEF projects large workforce transitions by 2030. [weforum.org]
McKinsey projects up to 30% of hours worked automated by 2030 in midpoint scenarios. [mckinsey.de]
Probability: ~70%
2035–2050: Fork in the Road
One of three paths dominates:
Path | Probability |
Regulated Abundance / UBI Hybrid | ~40% |
Neo‑Feudal Concentration | ~35% |
Augmented Work Capitalism | ~20% |
Loss of Control | ~5% |
2050+
Work as obligation likely gone in advanced economies.
Human value shifts toward:
Meaning
Governance
Culture
Exploration
The Real Question Isn’t “Will AI Take Jobs?”
That part is already answered. The real questions are:
Who owns the machines?
Who captures the surplus?
Is human dignity tied to labor—or existence?
Do we govern AI as infrastructure or as private property?
Those decisions are being made right now, quietly, in policy rooms—not in the future.
